Ohio
Ohio is the single most supply-constrained skilled electrician market in the United States Midwest, and one of the most constrained in the country at Q2 2026. The composite WEI of 88 (High, rising) reflects a historic convergence of megaproject demand that exceeds available craft labor at every tier — journeymen, foremen, and field supervision — with no near-term relief visible in the apprenticeship pipeline. The defining factor is Intel Ohio One: the $28B semiconductor campus in New Albany/Licking County carries a publicly reported electrical construction scope exceeding $1 billion across the first two fabs — the largest single electrical construction contract in Ohio history — and is publicly reported to require up to 2,500 peak electricians on-site. Simultaneously, AEP Ohio's $78B capital expansion plan (updated Q1 2026), a 600+ MW Columbus data-center corridor (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, QTS, Vantage), the Honda/LG Energy Solution battery plant in Jeffersonville, and the Anduril Arsenal-1 manufacturing complex in Pickaway County are competing for the same journeymen. The most explicit public signal of supply exhaustion is 'Project Cyprus' — IBEW Local 683's formalized traveler dispatch program for the Intel site — which is consistent with local membership being structurally insufficient to meet Intel's electrical demand alone. For owners, contractors, and investors, Ohio's Q2 2026 read means new MV-scope projects in Central Ohio face 6–9 month lead times from any competent preferred electrician and electrical bid premiums that public-source context indicates are running 20–35% above engineer's estimates.
At a glance
Current WEI: 88 · Exposure tier: High · Movement: Rising — +16 points over 4 quarters, the steepest trajectory in the AlphaHire state-archive series (AlphaHire-derived).
Confidence: High.
Most constrained role: MV electricians — WEI 94 (High), highest demand in the US for Intel fab + Columbus data-center energization.
Fastest-rising role: Substation crews — WEI 91 (High), driven by AEP Ohio's $78B transmission and distribution capital program.
Key supply signal: IBEW Local 683 'Project Cyprus' traveler dispatch program — a named, standing dispatch call for the Intel site — is consistent with local and regional IBEW membership being structurally insufficient to supply Intel's peak electrical demand.
Primary demand anchor: Intel Ohio One — publicly reported >$1B electrical scope, peak 2,500 electricians, minimum 4–5 active construction years remaining.
Secondary demand anchors: AEP Ohio $78B capital plan; Columbus 600+ MW data-center corridor; Honda/LG Jeffersonville battery plant; Anduril Arsenal-1.
Pipeline signal: Newark JATC enrollment grew from 35 (2017) to 800 (late 2025) — the most dramatic JATC scale-up in the country — and is targeting 2,000/year capacity, yet reported context indicates this remains structurally insufficient for Intel's peak demand.
Underlying data
The underlying series for this record are retained by AlphaHire. The public record includes source-family notes, the methodology version, and directional chart outputs.
Data access is available by request for approved research partners.
Exposure trend
The Ohio WEI has climbed from 60 (Elevated) in Q3 2024 to 88 (High) in Q2 2026 — a rise of 28 points across eight quarters, with every single quarter showing an increase. The acceleration is the signal: the WEI moved from the upper Elevated band into High territory beginning Q3 2025 (WEI 78) and has accelerated within the High band through Q2 2026. The +16-point gain over the most recent four quarters is the fastest four-quarter trajectory in the AlphaHire state-archive series. Ohio's demand structure is not cyclical — it is anchored by multi-year capital commitments that compress available supply further each quarter as projects layer on top of one another. The Q3 2025 tier transition from Elevated to High is consistent with Intel electrical work beginning its most intensive phase and AEP Ohio's capital plan revision upward from $54B to $72B to $78B across consecutive planning cycles.
Source: AlphaHire Workforce Exposure Index™ (WEI) — AlphaHire-derived 0–100 composite applied to BLS OEWS/QCEW, IBEW CBA public filings, and AlphaHire job-posting and project signals · Methodology WIL-2026.1 · AlphaHire-derived. Directional, banded read — not a forecast.
Most constrained occupations
Exposure is trade-specific and Ohio's distribution is unusual: all tracked roles sit in the High band, with MV electricians at 94 representing the most severe single-role constraint in the AlphaHire Midwest series. The Intel Ohio One fab demands the highest concentration of MV-certified and QEW-qualified inside wiremen of any project in the United States — a claim that public-source context consistently supports, with standing traveler dispatch calls and an on-record quote from IBEW Local 1105 that the union 'truly can't grow fast enough.' Substation crews sit at 91, driven by AEP Ohio's transmission and distribution program. Commissioning technicians at 89 reflect Intel's critical-path energization requirements. Pipefitters (82) and Mechanical/HVAC (80) carry sustained demand from the Honda/LG battery plant and hyperscale data-center mechanical scopes. Project managers at 76 remain High-band despite being the least acute role, consistent with the statewide scarcity of experienced field leadership on megaproject programs.
Source: AlphaHire Workforce Exposure Index™ (WEI) — AlphaHire-derived 0–100 composite applied to BLS OEWS/QCEW, IBEW CBA public filings, and AlphaHire job-posting and project signals · Methodology WIL-2026.1 · AlphaHire-derived. Directional, banded read — not a forecast.
Top constrained roles
MV electricians — 94 (High, rising). Medium-voltage-certified and QEW-qualified inside wiremen are the binding constraint on the Intel Ohio One critical path. Intel's publicly reported peak demand of 2,500 electricians on-site exceeds IBEW Local 683's total membership of 2,200+ even if all were qualified and available — a structural impossibility that drives the formalized 'Project Cyprus' traveler program. Public-source postings indicate market-clearing rates for MV-qualified Intel-site scope at $64.50/hr effective (all hours at 1.5x) on standard 5×10 + 8 schedules. Cupertino Electric's publicly posted Traveling General Foreman rate of $113/hr for New Albany work is consistent with the premium required to attract top-tier field leadership to this scope.
Substation crews — 91 (High, rising). AEP Ohio's $78B five-year capital plan (updated Q1 2026) includes $33B in transmission investment, 330 miles of new 765-kV line in Ohio and Indiana, and a $4.2B Piketon 765-kV corridor for a 10-GW data center campus. Substation construction and energization crews are absorbed into AEP's preferred contractor list at a rate that limits availability for other owners. Public-source evidence of AEP Station Electrician postings at $30.12–$53.36/hr in January 2026 is consistent with active recruitment pressure across the classification ladder.
Commissioning technicians — 89 (High, rising). Intel fab commissioning is among the most specialized industrial commissioning scopes in construction — requiring semiconductor-grade system startup, cleanroom protocol adherence, and high-power distribution verification under IBEW jurisdiction. Public-source context indicates that commissioning leads are on the Intel critical path from the first energization milestone, creating a narrow cohort of qualified technicians for whom demand vastly exceeds available supply in Ohio.
Pipefitters — 82 (High, rising). The L-H Battery Company plant in Jeffersonville (Fayette County) — a $4.4B Honda/LG joint venture — represents the most significant pipefitting scope in Central Ohio outside of Intel. Public-source context indicates construction is substantially complete but O&M staffing and ongoing mechanical scope sustain demand. Hyperscale data-center cooling packages and the Anduril Arsenal-1 defense manufacturing complex add incremental pipefitting demand statewide.
Mechanical / HVAC — 80 (High, rising). Hyperscale data-center mechanical packages (Amazon, Google, Meta, Vantage, QTS across the Columbus corridor) are aggregating mechanical trade demand at a scale not seen before in Ohio's non-semiconductor sectors. Columbus metro's 600+ MW operational and under-construction capacity implies sustained mechanical scope through 2028.
Project managers — 76 (High, stable). Experienced PMs with megaproject and data-center backgrounds are contested statewide. The concentration of concurrent programs — Intel + AEP + data-center corridor — means that capable field leaders carry larger-than-normal program loads, with schedule and quality risk increasing accordingly.
Roles easing or improving
At current readings, no tracked Ohio construction role sits below the High band. The statewide constraint profile is unusually uniform — a consequence of three simultaneous demand anchors (semiconductor, grid, data-center) competing for overlapping journeymen pools. Within the High band, project managers (76) show the smallest incremental tightening and have the least supply-side asymmetry relative to other roles, as experienced PMs can be sourced nationally without the local IBEW dispatch constraints that affect journeyman trades.
General construction laborers are not tracked in the AlphaHire WEI role series but public-source context from ABC Ohio Valley places the statewide construction labor shortage at approximately 60,000 workers across its 40+ county footprint — indicating that even less-specialized roles are under aggregate pressure, though not at the severity of MV-certified trades.
Non-field and administrative roles are not captured in this record. This archive is scoped to skilled construction trades on the critical path for electrical, mechanical, and commissioning delivery.
What is driving it
| Driver | Reading | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Intel Ohio One — semiconductor fab construction | Publicly reported >$1B electrical scope (first two fabs); peak demand of 2,500 electricians; 'Project Cyprus' traveler dispatch program is standing, named, and persistent — consistent with structural local supply exhaustion | Intensifying |
| AEP Ohio — $78B capital expansion | Updated Q1 2026 to $78B over five years, including $33B transmission; 330 miles of 765-kV line construction awarded; Piketon $4.2B corridor adds new transmission demand category beginning ~2027 | Intensifying |
| Columbus data-center corridor | 600+ MW operational and under-construction across Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, QTS, Vantage; Ohio ranked 3rd nationally in data-center capacity per public-source context; 300–500 MW additional pipeline through 2028 | Sustained |
| Honda / LG Energy Solution — Jeffersonville battery plant | $4.4B facility; construction substantially complete; O&M MV staffing and ongoing electrical scope sustain demand; IBEW participation confirmed via COBCTC public record | Stabilizing |
| Anduril Arsenal-1 defense manufacturing — Pickaway County | $910M+ campus targeting July 2026 production; active construction under IBEW jurisdiction; adds incremental electrical and mechanical trade demand in Central Ohio | Rising |
| Apprenticeship pipeline — structural insufficiency | Newark JATC grew from 35 to 800 enrollees (2017–2025), targeting 2,000/year; Local 683 JATC set enrollment records — yet reported context ('we truly can't grow fast enough') indicates pipeline remains below Intel's peak demand alone | Lagging |
| IBEW CBA wage escalation | IBEW LU-683 3-year CBA carries ~8.5% annual base-rate increases; Year 3 (June 2026) step adds $3.60/hr to base — compensation pressure is locked into existing CBAs through mid-2027 | Worsening |
| Labor Competition — NORA multi-local traveler competition | NORA covers 9 northern Ohio locals; Intel, AEP, and data-center hyperscalers compete for the same IBEW traveler pool; TSMC Arizona, Samsung Texas, Micron New York absorb the same national traveler system | Intensifying |
AlphaHire-derived driver reads. Directional, banded — not a forecast.
Public-source context
Public reporting and public records corroborate the direction of the AlphaHire read, separate from the WEI figures above:
- Ohio construction employment (public-source): Ohio added more construction jobs in a single month (March 2026: +5,300 / +2.0%) than any other US state, per the AGC Data Digest May 2026. Year-over-year construction employment growth through April 2026 is reported at +4.5% — consistent with the state being one of only two where construction unemployment improved year-over-year.
- Intel Ohio One (public-source): Intel's Ohio One campus in New Albany/Licking County is reported at $28B total investment (updated February 2025 from the original $20B commitment). The CHIPS Act award of $7.865B was finalized in November 2024, with $1.5B allocated to the Ohio One campus. Public reporting indicates Fab 52 and Fab 62 are above-ground, with more than 6.4 million crew-hours logged and 200,000+ cubic yards of concrete poured. Intel confirmed 'further deceleration' on its Q2 2025 earnings call, but public-source context indicates $1B+ invested in 2025 alone and the Bechtel construction team planning to ramp to 1,500+ on-site building trades from approximately 1,000 as of early 2026.
- 'Project Cyprus' — traveler dispatch (public-source): IBEW Local 683's available calls as of April 2025 listed standing dispatch calls at 225 Rathmell Rd, Columbus — identified as 'Project Cyprus' — for electrical contractors including Lake Erie Electric and Capital Electric Line Builders. IBEW Local 1105 (Newark, the primary jurisdictional local for Licking County) listed a 24-JW long call for ESI at the Intel New Albany site as of February 2026. Public-source context from February 2026 includes the quote: 'At peak they said they will need around 2,500 electricians… we truly can't grow fast enough' (IBEW Local 1105 representative). Workers from 75 of Ohio's 88 counties are reported to have contributed to Intel.
- IBEW Local 683 membership growth (public-source): IBEW reports Local 683 membership doubled to 2,200+, ranking 4th nationally in inside construction membership growth. The Biden Administration publicly challenged Local 683 to scale from 600 to 1,000 apprentices in four years. Record apprenticeship applications were reported in Local 683's history for 2025.
- Newark JATC expansion (public-source): The Ohio Apprenticeship Newsletter (Winter 2026) reported Newark JATC enrollment at 800 in late 2025, up from 35 in 2017 — a 23x increase. The JATC is expanding into the former Sears building at Indian Mound Mall in Heath, targeting capacity to train up to 2,000 electricians annually. This is reported to be the most dramatic JATC scale-up in the country by volume.
- AEP Ohio capital expansion (public-source): AEP's Q1 2026 earnings release reported a $78B five-year capital plan, including $33B in transmission. AEP's system peak demand is projected to grow from 37 GW to 65 GW by 2030. The Piketon 765-kV project ($4.2B) is publicly reported to support a 10-GW data center campus, with power beginning 2029. AEP disclosed 28 GW of contracted incremental load under binding agreements as of Q3 2025, with 7 GW of new load agreements signed in Q1 2026 alone.
- Columbus data-center corridor (public-source): Public-source context indicates Ohio ranks 3rd nationally in total data-center capacity (1.6 GW existing, 2.4 GW planned) per BIRM Group analysis. More than 60% is concentrated in Columbus. Amazon's Jefferson Township campus is reported at $5B; Vantage Data Centers' first Columbus building opened Q4 2025 with 2–3 additional buildings planned through 2028. PUCO's July 2025 approval of a data-center tariff requiring 85% capacity commitments is consistent with structural demand lock-in.
- Labor shortage context (public-source): ABC Ohio Valley reported an approximately 60,000-worker construction labor shortage across its 40+ county footprint in May 2026. Commercial and industrial contractor backlogs are reported at 8–9 months. Electrical subcontractor bid premiums of 20–35% above engineer's estimates in the Columbus metro are reported by public-source market commentary. MV electrician lead times of 6–9 months from preferred contractors committed to Intel are consistent with public-source reporting.
- Compensation benchmarks (public-source): IBEW LU-683 Year 2 journeyman base: $43.00/hr; total package $69.73/hr; Intel incentive all-hours-at-1.5x → effective $64.50/hr per hour worked. IBEW LU-683 Year 3 (June 2026): JW base increases to approximately $47.70/hr; total package approximately $73.26/hr. Cupertino Electric's publicly posted Traveling General Foreman rate for Intel GF work in New Albany is reported at $113/hr. IBEW LU-8 (Toledo) holds the highest Ohio local JW base at $51.04/hr / $72.29/hr total package.
*Public-source figures above provide directional context only — they are not blended into AlphaHire WEI charts or role scores.*
AlphaHire interpretation (AlphaHire-derived)
Ohio's Q2 2026 read at WEI 88 (High, rising) is the highest composite score in the AlphaHire state-archive Midwest series and reflects a demand structure that has no near-term supply resolution. The convergence of Intel Ohio One, AEP Ohio's transmission expansion, the Columbus data-center corridor, Honda/LG, and Anduril represents three simultaneous demand anchors competing for the same journeymen — a configuration that is not cyclical and not responsive to short-term wage increases alone.
The 'Project Cyprus' signal is the clearest available public-record confirmation of structural supply exhaustion: a named, standing, persistent IBEW traveler dispatch program — not a one-time call — maintained by Local 683 for an indefinite duration is consistent with local and regional IBEW membership being fundamentally insufficient for Intel's peak electrical demand, even after the most dramatic membership growth of any local in the region.
Newark JATC's 23x enrollment growth (35 to 800 apprentices, 2017–2025) is the most dramatic JATC scale-up in the country. It is still not enough. Even if the targeting of 2,000/year capacity is achieved, a 5-year apprenticeship cycle means the supply impact of today's enrollment cannot arrive before 2030 — the same year Intel Fab 52 is targeted to begin operations.
For owners, contractors, and investors evaluating Ohio project feasibility in Q2 2026: any MV or electrical scope in Franklin, Licking, Delaware, or Fairfield counties must underwrite the assumption that preferred MV electricians are unavailable for 6–9 months and that electrical bids will arrive materially above engineer's estimates. This is not a market condition that can be negotiated away — it is embedded in the project pipeline for at least the next 4–5 years.
Methodology note
The Ohio Workforce Exposure Index™ (WEI) blends AlphaHire's proprietary job-posting, project, and role-roster data with public labor statistics (BLS OEWS/QCEW/CES), IBEW public CBA filings, and Ohio prevailing wage records to produce a banded exposure read (Low to Severe) for skilled construction roles. Component sub-scores include Workforce Availability (92), Compensation Pressure (84), Hiring Velocity (85), Labor Competition (94), Backlog Concentration (92), Leadership Depth (82), and Execution Dependency (87). Scores are directional and comparative across time and geographies, not point forecasts of future hiring or wage levels; see the [Workforce Intelligence Lab methodology registry](/library/methodology) for index construction, banding, and confidence handling details.
Limitations
This is a directional, banded read — not a forecast. Values reflect AlphaHire-derived workforce exposure indicators and approved public-source context. It does not disclose AlphaHire's full underlying dataset, proprietary model weights, raw market-level exports, or client-specific workforce feasibility conclusions. No raw data or row-level records are exposed on this page. BLS OEWS wage data used for statewide context reflects the May 2024 survey cycle and includes all employer types (union and non-union, residential and commercial) — IBEW journeyman inside wireman market-clearing rates for Intel-grade MV scope run materially above BLS OEWS averages; both series are identified as public-source context, not AlphaHire measurements. All IBEW CBA rates cited in public-source context are drawn from publicly filed wage sheets and prevailing wage records; actual current CBA rates may vary. Intel Ohio One construction pace is subject to Intel's capital deployment decisions and may change; the WEI reflects the demand structure as of the period stated.
This record updates quarterly. Subsequent editions track each driver against this Q2 2026 baseline. The next edition (Q3 2026) will assess whether Intel electrical ramp acceleration, the Year 3 IBEW LU-683 wage step, and the first AEP 765-kV transmission mobilizations have caused further tightening or the beginning of a plateau. For the index construction, banding, and confidence handling, see the methodology registry.