Live Metrics · Workforce Exposure Index

Live Workforce Exposure Metrics

Standing read of construction-workforce exposure by state, derived from the Lab's live trackers. Banded exposure tiers — not raw scores — refreshed on the cadence below.

Directional operational read, not a forecast. Banded index reads, not raw model outputs. Coverage and confidence are disclosed. Methodology version v2; last updated 2026-06-08.

0
High exposure
1
Elevated exposure
38
Moderate exposure
10
Low exposure
Quarterly refresh; monthly increments where source publication permits
Refresh cadence

1Exposure-tier distribution

How the tracked states distribute across the four banded exposure tiers at the current reading. The shape — concentrated in Moderate, thin at the extremes — is the signal; the bands are directional, not scores.

Figure 1 · Exposure-tier distribution
U.S. states by workforce-exposure tier
Count of tracked states in each banded tier · banded tiers, not raw scores
U.S. states by workforce-exposure tierBar chart: High 0; Elevated 1; Moderate 38; Low 10, on a 0–49 scale.012253749High0Elevated1Moderate38Low10

Source: Workforce Exposure Index — public_reports matviews · BLS OEWS, BLS QCEW, U.S. Treasury USAspending · Methodology v2 · Directional, banded read — not a forecast. 49 tracked states + DC. Last updated 2026-06-08.

2State exposure tiers

Table 1. States by workforce-exposure tier
TierCountStates
Elevated1TX
Moderate38AL · AZ · CA · CO · CT · FL · GA · IA · ID · IL · IN · KS · LA · MD · ME · MI · MN · MS · MT · NC · ND · NE · NH · NJ · NM · NV · NY · OH · OK · OR · PA · SC · TN · UT · VA · WA · WI · WV
Low10AR · DC · DE · KY · MA · MO · RI · SD · VT · WY

Source: Workforce Exposure Index (Supabase public matviews). Coverage: 48 continental states + DC. Operational, directional read — not a forecast. Tiers, not scores. Ranges, not spot figures.

3Federal-award momentum

A second standing read, on the federal side of the market: where federal construction (NAICS 23) award activity is building or easing by state. Banded momentum tiers — not award dollars — from the same public-reports path. Of 51 states scored, 3 are rising, 2 steady, and 46 easing.

Figure 2 · Federal-award momentum distribution
U.S. states by federal-construction award-momentum band
Count of states in each banded momentum tier · tiers, not award dollars
U.S. states by federal-construction award-momentum bandBar chart: High 19; Elevated 7; Moderate 11; Low 14, on a 0–51 scale.013263851High19Elevated7Moderate11Low14

Source: Federal-award momentum — public_reports matview (vw_state_award_momentum), federal construction NAICS 23 · USAspending · Methodology v1 · Directional, banded read — not a forecast. 51 states scored. Last updated 2026-06-08.

Table 3. High federal-award momentum, rising
ReadCountStates
High & rising3CA · NJ · WY

Source: Federal-award momentum (public_reports matview), federal construction NAICS 23 via USAspending. Banded read — not award dollars, not a forecast. “Rising” = accelerating or expanding trend.

4Compensation positioning

How far the highest-paying state markets sit above the national median for core construction execution roles — a directional read on where wage pressure concentrates. The chart shows the top-market premium; the table carries the full spread, premium to discount, with the leading and lagging states.

Figure 3 · Compensation positioning
Top-market wage premium over the national median, by role
% above the national OEWS median in the highest-paying states · directional, banded
Top-market wage premium over the national median, by roleBar chart: Project Manager 35; Estimator 30; Project Engineer 20; Superintendent 35, on a 0–40 scale.010203040Project Manager35Estimator30Project Engineer20Superintendent35

Source: Compensation positioning — public_reports · BLS_OEWS (state vs national medians) · Methodology v2 · Directional, banded read — not a forecast. Last updated 2026-06-08.

Table 4. Wage spread over the national median, by role
RoleNational medianTop marketsLagging markets
Project Manager~$115k+35% (NY · WA · MA)-25% (AR · WY · WV)
Estimator~$80k+30% (MA · WY · CO)-20% (AR · NM · OK)
Project Engineer~$100k+20% (CA · WA · MA)-15% (GA · AR · WV)
Superintendent~$80k+35% (WA · IL · NJ)-25% (AR · AL · MS)

Source: BLS_OEWS via public_reports — state vs national OEWS medians, banded. Directional context, not measured offers; not a forecast.

5Construction workforce by state

The public-source backdrop to the exposure read: how the construction workforce is distributed across states. The chart shows the fifteen largest construction workforces; the table below carries all 50 states and DC. These are official BLS figures — public employment counts, distinct from the AlphaHire-derived banded reads above.

Figure 4 · Public-source · BLS QCEW 2024
Construction employment by state — 15 largest (2024)
Annual average employment, NAICS 23 (Construction), private ownership · public-source
Construction employment by state — 15 largest (2024)Bar chart: Texas 906588; California 802338; New York 732292; Florida 676656; Illinois 377645; Pennsylvania 339576; North Carolina 304330; Ohio 303268; Georgia 273058; New Jersey 253139; Arizona 230004; Michigan 216976; Massachusetts 216737; Virginia 205302; Minnesota 172726, on a 0–1000000 scale.02500005000007500001000000Texas906,588California802,338New York732,292Florida676,656Illinois377,645Pennsylvania339,576North Carolina304,330Ohio303,268Georgia273,058New Jersey253,139Arizona230,004Michigan216,976Massachusetts216,737Virginia205,302Minnesota172,726

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) — NAICS 23 Construction, private ownership · Methodology QCEW 2024 annual · Public-source government statistic. 2024 annual average employment — not a forecast.

Table 5. Construction employment by state — BLS QCEW, 2024 annual average
StateConstruction employment
Texas906,588
California802,338
New York732,292
Florida676,656
Illinois377,645
Pennsylvania339,576
North Carolina304,330
Ohio303,268
Georgia273,058
New Jersey253,139
Arizona230,004
Michigan216,976
Massachusetts216,737
Virginia205,302
Minnesota172,726
Missouri172,694
Tennessee170,444
Colorado169,036
Wisconsin155,704
Washington152,260
Indiana140,526
Maryland126,591
South Carolina118,372
Connecticut116,012
Iowa106,228
Alabama101,629
Utah98,932
Kentucky94,893
Louisiana86,941
Oklahoma82,113
Oregon81,959
Kansas73,345
Nevada73,245
Nebraska63,736
Arkansas55,868
Delaware49,798
Mississippi44,828
Idaho38,521
New Hampshire33,052
New Mexico32,907
Rhode Island31,690
Maine30,664
South Dakota26,974
Hawaii26,865
West Virginia25,833
District of Columbia25,088
Montana23,659
North Dakota22,134
Vermont11,438
Wyoming11,281
Alaska10,460

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) — NAICS 23 Construction, private ownership, 2024 annual average employment. Public-source government statistic — not a forecast.

6Methodology & coverage

Table 2. Standing-metric methodology
Methodology versionv2
Coverage48 continental states + DC
Refresh cadenceQuarterly refresh; monthly increments where source publication permits
Framework componentscompensation_pressure · labor_supply_constraint · demand_pressure · contractor_concentration · award_activity
Source familiesBLS OEWS · BLS QCEW · U.S. Treasury USAspending
Last updated2026-05-26

These metrics are a directional operational read, not a forecast. Exposure tiers are banded, not precise scores; public packages exclude proprietary model details and raw-data exports. Methodology revisions are versioned.

The Workforce Exposure Index, Compensation Volatility Framework, and the federal-award read are documented in the Methodology Registry.