Live Workforce Exposure Metrics
Standing read of construction-workforce exposure by state, derived from the Lab's live trackers. Banded exposure tiers — not raw scores — refreshed on the cadence below.
Directional operational read, not a forecast. Banded index reads, not raw model outputs. Coverage and confidence are disclosed. Methodology version v2; last updated 2026-06-08.
1Exposure-tier distribution
How the tracked states distribute across the four banded exposure tiers at the current reading. The shape — concentrated in Moderate, thin at the extremes — is the signal; the bands are directional, not scores.
Source: Workforce Exposure Index — public_reports matviews · BLS OEWS, BLS QCEW, U.S. Treasury USAspending · Methodology v2 · Directional, banded read — not a forecast. 49 tracked states + DC. Last updated 2026-06-08.
2State exposure tiers
| Tier | Count | States |
|---|---|---|
| Elevated | 1 | TX |
| Moderate | 38 | AL · AZ · CA · CO · CT · FL · GA · IA · ID · IL · IN · KS · LA · MD · ME · MI · MN · MS · MT · NC · ND · NE · NH · NJ · NM · NV · NY · OH · OK · OR · PA · SC · TN · UT · VA · WA · WI · WV |
| Low | 10 | AR · DC · DE · KY · MA · MO · RI · SD · VT · WY |
Source: Workforce Exposure Index (Supabase public matviews). Coverage: 48 continental states + DC. Operational, directional read — not a forecast. Tiers, not scores. Ranges, not spot figures.
3Federal-award momentum
A second standing read, on the federal side of the market: where federal construction (NAICS 23) award activity is building or easing by state. Banded momentum tiers — not award dollars — from the same public-reports path. Of 51 states scored, 3 are rising, 2 steady, and 46 easing.
Source: Federal-award momentum — public_reports matview (vw_state_award_momentum), federal construction NAICS 23 · USAspending · Methodology v1 · Directional, banded read — not a forecast. 51 states scored. Last updated 2026-06-08.
| Read | Count | States |
|---|---|---|
| High & rising | 3 | CA · NJ · WY |
Source: Federal-award momentum (public_reports matview), federal construction NAICS 23 via USAspending. Banded read — not award dollars, not a forecast. “Rising” = accelerating or expanding trend.
4Compensation positioning
How far the highest-paying state markets sit above the national median for core construction execution roles — a directional read on where wage pressure concentrates. The chart shows the top-market premium; the table carries the full spread, premium to discount, with the leading and lagging states.
Source: Compensation positioning — public_reports · BLS_OEWS (state vs national medians) · Methodology v2 · Directional, banded read — not a forecast. Last updated 2026-06-08.
| Role | National median | Top markets | Lagging markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Project Manager | ~$115k | +35% (NY · WA · MA) | -25% (AR · WY · WV) |
| Estimator | ~$80k | +30% (MA · WY · CO) | -20% (AR · NM · OK) |
| Project Engineer | ~$100k | +20% (CA · WA · MA) | -15% (GA · AR · WV) |
| Superintendent | ~$80k | +35% (WA · IL · NJ) | -25% (AR · AL · MS) |
Source: BLS_OEWS via public_reports — state vs national OEWS medians, banded. Directional context, not measured offers; not a forecast.
5Construction workforce by state
The public-source backdrop to the exposure read: how the construction workforce is distributed across states. The chart shows the fifteen largest construction workforces; the table below carries all 50 states and DC. These are official BLS figures — public employment counts, distinct from the AlphaHire-derived banded reads above.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) — NAICS 23 Construction, private ownership · Methodology QCEW 2024 annual · Public-source government statistic. 2024 annual average employment — not a forecast.
| State | Construction employment |
|---|---|
| Texas | 906,588 |
| California | 802,338 |
| New York | 732,292 |
| Florida | 676,656 |
| Illinois | 377,645 |
| Pennsylvania | 339,576 |
| North Carolina | 304,330 |
| Ohio | 303,268 |
| Georgia | 273,058 |
| New Jersey | 253,139 |
| Arizona | 230,004 |
| Michigan | 216,976 |
| Massachusetts | 216,737 |
| Virginia | 205,302 |
| Minnesota | 172,726 |
| Missouri | 172,694 |
| Tennessee | 170,444 |
| Colorado | 169,036 |
| Wisconsin | 155,704 |
| Washington | 152,260 |
| Indiana | 140,526 |
| Maryland | 126,591 |
| South Carolina | 118,372 |
| Connecticut | 116,012 |
| Iowa | 106,228 |
| Alabama | 101,629 |
| Utah | 98,932 |
| Kentucky | 94,893 |
| Louisiana | 86,941 |
| Oklahoma | 82,113 |
| Oregon | 81,959 |
| Kansas | 73,345 |
| Nevada | 73,245 |
| Nebraska | 63,736 |
| Arkansas | 55,868 |
| Delaware | 49,798 |
| Mississippi | 44,828 |
| Idaho | 38,521 |
| New Hampshire | 33,052 |
| New Mexico | 32,907 |
| Rhode Island | 31,690 |
| Maine | 30,664 |
| South Dakota | 26,974 |
| Hawaii | 26,865 |
| West Virginia | 25,833 |
| District of Columbia | 25,088 |
| Montana | 23,659 |
| North Dakota | 22,134 |
| Vermont | 11,438 |
| Wyoming | 11,281 |
| Alaska | 10,460 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) — NAICS 23 Construction, private ownership, 2024 annual average employment. Public-source government statistic — not a forecast.
6Methodology & coverage
| Methodology version | v2 |
| Coverage | 48 continental states + DC |
| Refresh cadence | Quarterly refresh; monthly increments where source publication permits |
| Framework components | compensation_pressure · labor_supply_constraint · demand_pressure · contractor_concentration · award_activity |
| Source families | BLS OEWS · BLS QCEW · U.S. Treasury USAspending |
| Last updated | 2026-05-26 |
These metrics are a directional operational read, not a forecast. Exposure tiers are banded, not precise scores; public packages exclude proprietary model details and raw-data exports. Methodology revisions are versioned.
The Workforce Exposure Index, Compensation Volatility Framework, and the federal-award read are documented in the Methodology Registry.