Methodology Registry

Skilled-labor availability in an occupation and region relative to projected demand.

Primary question

Is the labor required to staff projected work present?

Source families

BLS (employment & occupational) · Apprenticeship & training records · Announced project pipelines

Inputs

Public employment and occupational data; apprenticeship and training records; announced project pipelines.

Assumptions

Occupational categories are comparable across sources; announced demand approximates realized demand within stated bounds.

Validation status

Back-testing against historical staffing outcomes and cross-region replication; predictive validity to be determined.

Limitations

Sensitive to the quality of demand estimates; less reliable where occupational definitions are coarse or data are sparse.

Capacity of a regional or sectoral workforce to absorb additional projects without exceeding labor supply.

Primary question

Can the workforce absorb new demand?

Source families

Workforce stocks & flows · Utilization indicators · Skilled-labor migration

Inputs

Workforce stocks and flows; utilization indicators; in- and out-migration of skilled labor.

Assumptions

Capacity scales with measurable workforce stocks and mobility; short-run training response is bounded.

Validation status

Comparison of index levels against observed delay and overtime indicators; sensitivity testing of mobility assumptions.

Limitations

Does not capture informal or undocumented labor flows; mobility estimates carry material uncertainty.

Operational workforce-execution constraint, banded by market, role, or portfolio.

Primary question

How exposed is delivery to workforce-related risk?

Source families

BLS OEWS · BLS QCEW · USAspending · State contractor registries · AlphaHire pipeline

Inputs

Compensation pressure (OEWS), labor-supply constraint (QCEW employment trend), demand pressure (posting-volume proxy), contractor concentration (license-registry depth), and federal-award activity (USAspending).

Assumptions

Exposure rises with reliance on constrained occupations and with concentration of demand in time and place; components are comparable after normalization and banding.

Validation status

Validated against 2023–2025 market-stress events; quarterly back-testing against BLS revisions; reliability checks across analysts.

Limitations

An indicator of exposure, not a forecast of failure; depends on the validity of its component measures; banded — not a precise score.

Instability in compensation for skilled occupations across regions and over time.

Primary question

How stable is the price of labor?

Source families

BLS OEWS · BLS QCEW (context)

Inputs

National median wage (OEWS); regional wage spread (state vs. national); directional year-over-year trend band; role-family segmentation.

Assumptions

Reported compensation reflects market conditions with a stated lag; series are comparable after adjustment.

Validation status

Validated against BLS annual revisions; cross-checked with state wage surveys; sensitivity testing of adjustment choices.

Limitations

Lagged and incomplete coverage of fast-moving markets; benefits and informal pay imperfectly observed.

Linkage of workforce constraints to project-execution risk, in a structured, comparable form.

Primary question

How do labor constraints translate into delivery risk?

Source families

WEI output · CVF output · Role-demand signals · Mission-critical role taxonomy

Inputs

Outputs of the availability, capacity, and exposure measures; project scope, schedule, and location attributes.

Assumptions

Execution risk can be approximated by combining workforce measures with project characteristics.

Validation status

Beta — retrospective comparison against documented execution outcomes; classification-stability review in progress.

Limitations

A decision-support structure rather than a probabilistic model; inherits the limits of its inputs.