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San Diego — Workforce Exposure Assessment™

Workforce Exposure Assessment™ · Exposure Assessment · H1 2026

← MatrixSan Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad · Elevated (58)Slug: ca-san-diego-exposure-assessment
WorkflowPublished
Completion
100%
Exposure section
100%
Owner
Research Team
Published
2026-06-08

Advance one step at a time: draft → in progress → under review → approved → published. Publish requires 100% completion, approved status, and a full exposure section for Exposure Assessment deliverables.

Live on the research library at /reports/ca-workforce-atlas/ca-san-diego-exposure-assessment. Sync Supabase via POST /api/admin/ca-atlas/seed after migration.

Thesis

Exposure Assessment — San Diego MSA at Elevated tier with expanding momentum and modest premium wage positioning.

Executive summary

Role exposure concentrates at federal PM and clearance-dependent leadership; commercial superintendent band is adequate. Succession gaps on cleared PM bench.

Metrics
WEI composite: 58
Elevated tier
Employment trend: Expanding
QCEW Q3 2025
Wage position: Modest premium
vs. inland MSAs
Elevated Exposure

Federal and senior-PM constraints on expanding market

Commercial entry viable; federal thesis requires cleared leadership depth.

Key observations
  • Federal PM exposure high — clearance narrows pool.
  • Commercial PM exposure moderate — adequate for one program.
  • Electrical superintendent moderate on life-sciences scopes.
Recommendations
Refresh assessment quarterly
Expanding trend can move Elevated markets to High on senior roles within two quarters.
Document clearance dependency
Required on any federal-exposed acquisition or JV.
Exposure assessment

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad · H1 2026 · Tier Elevated · expanding · modest_premium

San Diego markets read Elevated on composite exposure with expanding employment — defense, biotech, and coastal commercial demand compete for the same senior PM and electrical bench. Organizational exposure is demand-driven: adequate field depth today, tightening senior band as Navy and life-sciences capital programs accelerate.

Key roles

Commercial PM — high
Moderate — defense contractors anchor pool · Security clearance narrows passive pool on federal work.
Electrical Superintendent — moderate
Adequate for standard commercial · Watch LA poaching on life-sciences builds.
Superintendent — moderate
Adequate — strong local contractor base · Modest premium vs. inland aids retention on 90-day timelines.

Executive implication

San Diego is enterable with standard timelines on commercial work; federal and life-sciences scopes require clearance-aware recruiting and premium positioning. Expanding trend will compress the senior PM band within two quarters.

Data sources & limitations

Sources

  • BLS QCEW
  • BLS OEWS
  • CSLB license feed
  • Federal award momentum
  • Permit velocity

Scope limitations

  • Clearance requirements not modeled at individual level.
  • Defense vs. commercial split not resolved in MSA composite.
  • H1 2026 snapshot — expanding trend can tighten senior band quickly.